Tuesday February 22nd 2022

@redten99 Bit of a tricky one for me to answer properly on here , sorry .

@Jonathan Dawe Theres a very good chapter in Nick Mordins book about the subject. Personally I do not think knowing will help the average punter one bit ,whereas a big red dot against horses who have bled will . There were 4 well tipped up horses running on Saturday who have bled in the past, all four bled again and failed to finish and cost punters a packet.

The science says 2.2lbs of extra weight will slow the " average sized TB " down by a length a mile . However common sense says a big 16.2 hh strong colt or gelding would carry 12st in the mud far better than a light framed one but its class that counts really as in all sports . Its identifying that element that's the key.

I've lost count the number of times a horse wins and is then upped in class off a lower weight and then gets turned over.

From a betting prospective the higher the class of the animal the more reliable they are to perform at their optimum given the right conditions . Trying to fathom out lower class races without inside knowledge is why bookies have Rollers and punters are on push bikes.Knowing a horses size and racing weight wont help you a bit.

The ones who benefit in jurisdictions where it's done, like HK for instance ,are the stewards who can then see a differential up or down and legitimately ask a trainer wtf are you upto when a fav gets turned over or something hidden for months pops up well backed.

@Dilton Nick Mordin's books I can find are Betting for a Living, The Winning Look and Mordin on Time. I going to assume The Winning Look based on the cover.

While I agree the fact of a horses weight may not be important, but changes in weight up or down maybe. Unlike EGS I have not gained muscle weight as I've aged, although my weight has been relatively constant for over 30 years.

Totally onboard regarding "bleeding" horses. Yesterday I liked a horse looking at the RP, but when I looked at him on TF it stated horse had bled last time out. Sure enough a DNF. As a child I was introduced to the problem of horses bursting blood vessels during the game of Totopoly. While I didn't fully appreciate the issue it has always had an influence on me. Usually, when my brother's horse burst a blood vessel when leading, the end result was usually my brother bursting a blood vessel soon afterwards as his horse was put back in the box.

Kisses of fire 7.30 southwell a MHEMAS..