A winnerless Friday by the look of it. Doubtless, you will all pick a winner on Saturday.The wee trophy for the 2022 champion Alan arrived today. Here's a not very good picture of it. Alan, I'll send it on soon.All the best.Joe
I spent 20 minutes on the Unibet Veteran's Chase race on Thursday, concluding that Run To Milan was the best value EW to 6 places: he was 20/1. I hadn’t looked closely enough at the others to commit at that point. I checked this morning (Friday) after Dingo Dollar was taken out and he was 16/1 – fair enough. But looking again before writing this I see Run To Milan is now just 10/1 (he’d been Pricewised) and is around the price I thought he should be when I first looked. I believe he’ll run a big race and will still be backing him EW, but I can no longer call him value, the subject I usually concentrate on.
Run To Milan’s top 9 Racing Post Ratings have been achieved on right handed tracks. This will be his first run over fences here. All three wins were at Exeter – like Sandown, right handed and undulating. His last three runs have been left-handed, and he showed some spark last time wearing first time cheekpieces, finishing 3rd on his 2nd run of the season. He’ll be fitter for this and ought to run well.
I expect Sir Ivan to be thereabouts too at a decent price. He finished 3rd in the past two running of this, but since last year’s renewal has come down 11lbs in the handicap. He was a good 3rd last time out at Fontwell over an inadequate trip.
But the best value now is the 40/1 Broken Quest with William Hill, EW to 6 places. Most of his racing has been on good ground, but he has won on heavy and on soft; still his top 4 Racing Post Ratings are on good ground, and his last nine runs have been on good. Broken Quest rattled up a three-timer last season. He’s had three runs this season, the best of them over 20f at Cheltenham in November where he had 4 of today’s rivals – Saint Xavier, Ballyandy, Kauto Riko, and Elegant Escape behind him. Like Run To Milan, all of his victories (9) have been right handed.
Broken Quest’s trainer David Dennis also has Indy Five here, ridden by Stan Sheppard, who rides for Dennis regularly and is Broken Quest’s usual rider. Indy Five is about 20/1. He’s inconsistent, and 4 of his 5 wins have been left handed. Gavin Sheehan rides Broken Quest.
So, take your pick. For value EW to 6 places, I think the 40/1 – Hills will boost that by about 5 points – about Broken Quest tops the others. His chance very much depends on how he handles the ground in this company, and I can only assume that’s the reason for his price; the doubt is there, but even with that I’d have had him in at around 14/1 to 16/1.
I’ll also have EW bets to 6 places on Run To Milan and Sir Ivan.
Elegant Escape 3.00 Sandown
Asdaa, a horse ive a small interest in with friends on Owners group goes for a treble tonight at Kempton - every chance but short enough. its a nice horse wins its share till its upped in weights. loses a bunch then gets dropped down and starts winning again. will cheer it on.
The nap will be Grey Diamond 13.450 Sandown.
NAP Sandown 3.35 - Djelo
There’s certainly value to be had in the Tolworth. However, you might need to employ Hercule Poirot to actually identify the winner. I will avoid the front two in the book as I reckon they are way too short. Tahmuras looks a natural but nothing he has beaten has franked the form and Authorised Speed’s jumping doesn’t convince. Robicheaux makes a good case for Blow Your Wad, but couldn’t an equally solid claim be made on behalf of L’astroboy? He beat Tahmuras at Ffos Las in a bumper despite some poor positioning by Adam Wedge and then did the job well enough next time out over timber. I’ve backed him to be placed on Betfair at 3.25 (still available). Artic Bresil though, is a gorgeous looking specimen and I’m shallow enough to back him on looks alone.
I love these vets races with so many old favourites to choose from.
Nap 1500 Rameses de Teillee
It drifted after I backed it and I got worried as Prime Venture looked a Chris Williams plunge horse but that has drifted an awful lot which I find surprising.
Timeform picking Grey Diamond woke me up as I expected them to pick a Tolworth runner. Only a 3 runner race but I'm looking forward to Tommy's Oscar too as the Hamilton's runners are doing better now in my useless observations.
Chirico Vallis (each way) - 15.00 Sandown
Magic Saint 1.30W nap
I had divine inspiration and put it in a double with Saint Xavier!
Kalaharry 3.43 Newcastle is the nap.
Vision of hope 2.55L.
15.35 Sandown - Djelo
You look at that bumper run against Tahmuras at Wincanton, where it sounds like greenness cost him the race. There’s no way Blow your Wad should be 33/1.
Ew nap. Blow your wad. Tolworth hurdle.
Sir Ivan 15:00 sand EW Nap
Wasn't expecting that !!!! Sadly the glass is empty but I shall soon rectify that and raise a toast to all the fellow members of this site....thank you
Well done Alan.
An aged Chardonnay in that glass, maybe. Maybe a Beugolais Nouveau