Saturday February 18th 2023

EGS kept the flag flying on Friday, and I suspect we will see quite a few winners from you all today. If I've left anyone out, I apologise; please leave a message on this thread and I'll update.

Haydock, 2.40:

Tim Pat's two best Racing Post Ratings have been achieved on good ground. With just 5 chases, he is unexposed, especially at this trip. He is due to carry 10.2, 3lbs out of the handicap, but Brian Hughes is jocked up. Brian’s lowest riding weight is published at ten stones, so there ought to be no more overweight.

Tim Pat won his last two races last season and has improved with each of his three outings this year. Last time out he was a neck 2nd on good ground at Doncaster and is coming nicely into form. He won over this course and distance last March, and has a lot going for him. His best two Racing Post Ratings were on good ground, 5lbs clear of his best run on easy ground, so the more rain, the less of an advantage he probably has. Still, 5 places EW is widely available and should be taken, I think. He's 10/1 as I write.

Ascot 2.25

Looking at the staying chase at Ascot, Neon Moon looks much too big at 16/1 to that generous 5 places EW (now quite widely available). Ascot's ground this morning (Friday) was given as good, good to soft in places (the good ground, as usual at Ascot comes from the turn in to the exit of the home straight. Turf here was relaid some years ago but it has never settled to a winter consistency with the old turf on the rest of the course; and it can make things less safe than ideal for horses suddenly finding themselves on different ground).

Anyway, a number of these have never shone on good ground, quite a substantial number. Some of them have won on it, but the rating achieved was some way below their best. Neon Moon's top four performances are on good ground; only Danny Kirwan can better that, but he is not nearly as good value as Neon Moon.

Trainer Pipe is in decent form at a win strike rate of 22% and Philip Armson takes 3lbs off with his claim. Neon Moon ought to have won last week at Taunton, but being steadied into the last saw him lose too much momentum, and he was beaten half a length. His top 3 performances have been right handed. But the ground is far and away the key contributor to the value here. Weather forecast says bright and breezy through Friday and Saturday, suggesting that some of the ease might come out of the good to soft section. An EW bet to 5 places is strongly recommended.

Good luck

Joe