EGS kept the flag flying on Friday, and I suspect we will see quite a few winners from you all today. If I've left anyone out, I apologise; please leave a message on this thread and I'll update.
Haydock, 2.40:
Tim Pat's two best Racing Post Ratings have been achieved on good ground. With just 5 chases, he is unexposed, especially at this trip. He is due to carry 10.2, 3lbs out of the handicap, but Brian Hughes is jocked up. Brian’s lowest riding weight is published at ten stones, so there ought to be no more overweight.
Tim Pat won his last two races last season and has improved with each of his three outings this year. Last time out he was a neck 2nd on good ground at Doncaster and is coming nicely into form. He won over this course and distance last March, and has a lot going for him. His best two Racing Post Ratings were on good ground, 5lbs clear of his best run on easy ground, so the more rain, the less of an advantage he probably has. Still, 5 places EW is widely available and should be taken, I think. He's 10/1 as I write.
Ascot 2.25
Looking at the staying chase at Ascot, Neon Moon looks much too big at 16/1 to that generous 5 places EW (now quite widely available). Ascot's ground this morning (Friday) was given as good, good to soft in places (the good ground, as usual at Ascot comes from the turn in to the exit of the home straight. Turf here was relaid some years ago but it has never settled to a winter consistency with the old turf on the rest of the course; and it can make things less safe than ideal for horses suddenly finding themselves on different ground).
Anyway, a number of these have never shone on good ground, quite a substantial number. Some of them have won on it, but the rating achieved was some way below their best. Neon Moon's top four performances are on good ground; only Danny Kirwan can better that, but he is not nearly as good value as Neon Moon.
Trainer Pipe is in decent form at a win strike rate of 22% and Philip Armson takes 3lbs off with his claim. Neon Moon ought to have won last week at Taunton, but being steadied into the last saw him lose too much momentum, and he was beaten half a length. His top 3 performances have been right handed. But the ground is far and away the key contributor to the value here. Weather forecast says bright and breezy through Friday and Saturday, suggesting that some of the ease might come out of the good to soft section. An EW bet to 5 places is strongly recommended.
Good luck
Joe
I backed the winner russian emperor waa with obrien one time. for some strange reason i backed broome as well..
I put a few quud on echoes of rain barnane stud tuesday in chelters.
Janidil, wins at 7/2.
Don't Go Yet 2.52 Gowran Park
Fakir d'Oudairies in the 15:35 at Ascot
Yes no Maybe So in the 16.10 at Ascot is an EW nap today.
Kaleb e.w. - 15.00 Ascot
I felt a bit out of touch this morning watching TML at the suggestion that jockeys should be going into schools to promote racing. Back int' day schools used to have careers conventions which, in my experience were wonderful eye opening affairs where kids could be enthused into a host of opportunities for their futures. One regular at ours was the Northern Racing School and it was always a favourite with the youth because they brought a mechanical horse they could have a go on. I'd always meet a few having a great time of it when I went to Pontefract races. Being long past it I don't know if this sort of thing still happens, and if it doesn't, it blooming well should.
He’s up against an Henderson hotpot in a 3 horse race but Kinondo Kwetu in the 13.50 at Ascot is the one for me. Just backed him at 9/2, a price which feels a bit insulting given how impressive he was before his mid-season break.
Janidil, Gowran Park 3.27.
Best of luck to all !
Serious operator 16:25 Hay EW Nap
NAP Ascot 3.00 - Djelo
Afadil 1.30H.
Fortescue 2.40 Haydock is the nap,well done yesterday E.G.S.
NAP Zoffany Bay 3.00 Ascot.
1800 gifted gold newc
Tim Donworth has a runner in the 11.35 at Doha this morning.
Hay 1405 Erne River
Cliff horse!