Two Friday winners - well done. If I've left anyone out, I apologise; please leave a message on this thread and I'll update.
I’ve been watching Certainly Red’s improvement through this season. He started off on a mark of 116, and now sits on 142, representing an improvement of almost two stones. I’m pretty sure there is more to come, and already have him down as a Grand National horse for next year.
The betting on this race on Monday saw a couple of offers of 20/1: I resisted betting or tipping him, as I have found it best over the season to await the 48 hour decs before risking cash. He’s now 10/1 after steady daily support. Were he trained by one of the big guns, he’d nearly be favourite. Lydia Richards has done a fine job with him in training and placing, and I suspect this has been the long term plan since he won with such verve at Wincanton in December.
He’ll be fine in any ground with ease in it, and his victories over staying trips suggest that this 3m5f will be all right for him. He won at Sandown in January over 20f, this despite jumping badly left at the last. He followed that up with another Wincanton victory over 3m1f, surging clear on the run-in. He then had a two-month holiday before reappearing over hurdles as, I assume, a pipe opener for this big one. The good conditional Caoilin Quinn takes an extra 5lbs off his back giving him a weight of 10.5.
I’d normally pick two or three in a race like this, but in this case I’m more than happy to stick with Certainly Red and he’s a strongly recommended EW bet at 10/1 to 6 places with Bet365 (others offer 9s or shorter), and he is my nap today, win only,
Good luck all
Joe
Felt like a bit of a funny day to me, I suppose not such a surprise with the end of the jumps season and early days on the flat.
I know he was the best horse, but Hewick really impressed me, as was not fluent at times and First Flow looked full of running, but still nailed and looks like a good time too.
NAP Diol Ker 4.25 Punchestown.
Late Arrival EW Nap 3rd 12/1
Harper's Brook in the 15:25 at Sandown Park
Been looking at few P Nicholls in the 1.05 at Sandown, but for end an end-of-the-month tilt at a big price:
Nap Bertie's Wish 1.05
Love envoi 3.50P.
Joe may have a decent bet there. I also like Pebbles' below and
Nap Hay 1620 Deceiver
went drinking yesterday tea and have missed the value on this one. Had a good time though.
Late Arrival 14:05 Hay EW Nap
I’ve never been able to combine professionalism with a gentlemanly air, but Biggles managed it! He’s the selection (15.45 Haydock).
Insee Gall - 13.30Haydock
Hi Joe. I had Jetoile yesterday too. It won at 11/8
Vintage Clarets Rip 16.10
NAP: 5.15 Ripon - Oh Heberts Reign
I'm going to avoid napping anything at Sandown - it was unraceable yesterday & it's good to soft in places today?
Enrilo 2.15 Sandown is the nap,well done yesterdays winners especially Jonathon with his 11/1 winner.
3.45 haydock montassib
Franco De Port. 16.00. Auteuil. e.w.
Great run by Uggy Uggy Uggy yesterday. Alas couldn't get a bet on in time as work is mental and I would have gone down to all available places (bet 365 only went to 4). calculate I missed out on 79 cent profit on the bet I wanted to make.
Really annoying.
Nap. Power of Pause. Punchestown 5.30. I'm on at 28/1 ew.
Joe obviously had such little confidence in my nap in the last race of the day on Friday (fully justified mind you) that he started the Saturday thread before it ran.
Walk Away Harry won at 11/1.
Always pleasing when you like a horse on debut and add it to the tracker, although he did leave it a bit late.