Naps Table Update
Up to date now; thanks for your patience and well done all winners.
Thanks again to Quai for opening up the Friday forum. I'll open this now in case Wix goes down again this evening, and also because I have a bee in my bonnet that I needed to get untangled and cast out into the open. Normally, this sort of post would be in another section of the forum, but I think we generally agreed last time it was discussed that it's fine to have non-nap, non-daily racing stuff posted here.
The loss of Discorama and Eclair Surf after suffering injuries in the Grand National has led to speculation about further changes, with the Post carrying two articles inside a few days - Chris Cook and Richard Forristal. Both mention the possibility of field size being reduced to 30; neither recommends it but given past decisions, that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.
Despite the softening of the course over the years, problems remain, mostly I'd say in the early part of the race as the rush for position inevitably takes its toll. I don’t believe the course or fences or distance should be the first point of call in looking to make the race safer, but some radical thinking could easily do so to the advantage of all concerned. I suggested on twitter yesterday that perhaps staggered starts would help: Give them all 10.7 and execute the handicap by speed or distance, the latter being the easiest to pull off in my opinion. The only two who responded thought I was joking. One of them, Simon Rowlands batted a couple of tweets back and forward suggesting I was 3 holes short of a full stirrup leather. Am always happy to debate with anyone, but the danger with this kind of idea is that 99% of those ‘in the know’ (like Simon) ridicule it from the outset without taking any time to consider. The big sticking point for many will be the start, but that’s easily solved by using specially adapted starting stalls.
Anyway, I will elaborate here to get the thoughts of hundreds of years experience on this forum.
Simon’s calculations on it - “A 1lb differential would be equivalent to about 0.29s or about 4 yards”
So instead of conceding weight, our runners would concede distance/time, with the former the easiest, I think. Looking at last Saturday, the winner Noble Yeats would have started the race 48 yards ahead of the 2nd Any Second Now. The full range of the handicap is much tighter than in the old days - the scope on Saturday being 11.10 to 10.5 - 76 yards if using a distance handicap. So, you would break the field into three cohorts, each of them containing horses of close ability on ratings. You can’t get this dead on, but weight could be brought into the equation again to balance the cohort more accurately if necessary.
We then put in place three sets of starting stalls, specially adapted for the size of steeplechasers: one set is on the inside, one in the middle, and one on the outer. If working on a time basis, the sets of stalls would be sited across the main start line, with the inside going off as normal, measured pause before the second set of stalls open, and another pause before the last set open. But handicapping by distance would be much easier from a practical viewpoint. This year, Noble Yeats would have been in the first cohort and Any Second Now in the final cohort. The latter’s set of stalls would sit 48 yards farther back than the winner’s, though still on the outside rail to ensure an unimpeded run to the first.
Pros and cons?
On the distance handicapping, you’d have to make a decision about cohorts 2 and 3 running beyond the published distance of the race, or cohorts 1 and 2 not running the full published distance. It wouldn’t bother me either way, but is in the con column. I cannot think of another drawback in this, but doubtless they would emerge as it was examined.
On the pros side …
Removes the need of a charge to the first and the battle for position over the early fences.
Horses and jocks can see much more of what is around them in the early stages and have acres of room to manoeuvre.
Aside from the normal excitement of the race, I believe it would be greatly enhanced if it was managed properly - each horse or jock wearing a cohort colour as well as their standard colours; each cohort given its own commentator until the fields finally merge. It would lead to quite a few more betting opportunities too and would arguably make bets on the better horses a bit more risky as they must, eventually, overcome everything in front, sacrificing the possible advantage of being in the leading group at the first.
From a welfare viewpoint, all horses carrying the same low weight as well as having the chance of more room, and hopefully less early speed, contributing to a raised number of finishers and many fewer crowding accidents.
From a marketing viewpoint, it should open sponsorship opportunities on starting stalls and cohorts.
Overall, it would, I think make the race safer and considerably more exciting on the first circuit.
I’d be grateful for your thoughts.
All the best.
Joe
My Prospero wins at 13/8
My nap Toy won early in the 13.40 at "Cork" at 5/6.
Re Cheltenham: It's the old switcheroo. Give us Kempton for housing or we'll destroy the Festival. On a wider note, who are the property developers eyeing racecourses and 'encouraging' the decline in UK racing?
Pep picks Fernandinho, he gets a yellow .Brilliant . I'm really going to miss him when he goes .
NAP La Prima Donna, 4.50 Fairyhouse.
Wild beauty won 3/1
Sadiqaa - 19.15 Nottingham (nap).
I suspect there will be further changes to the GN but very much doubt they will be anything like the proposal Joe has put forward. Personally, unless there’s more that can be done with the overall layout in order to try and provide more opportunities to ‘filter’ loose horses, I wouldn’t alter it anymore.
However, regardless of what I think, the apparent ongoing need to react and respond to concerns about the race will ensure it’s only a matter of time before the 40 horse limit is reduced, probably incrementally, until it’s down to 30. Whether that would make any difference to the number of injuries or fatalities is unknown but if and when such a move is made then there won’t be any going back on it.
I don't think The GN should be tinkered with anymore than what has happened to date. I could not see Joe's proposal being implemented and think it would ruin the race.
Neither do I agree with extending Cheltenham, even the 4th day has resulted in too many ordinary quality races. The 5th day would mean a further dilution of the product. But, as with most things nowadays, it's all about money and so will probably happen.
Mashoor - 17.10 Cork
So far this month virtually every horse I've napped has been placed, but not won. Latino Fling is on my tracker and I will back it. However my nap is My Prospero (another tracker) in the 16:10 at Newbury. I will be stirring a right old tempest if he doesn't win.
Latino fling 4.29 Carlisle for nap.
I'm probably against any further GN changes. As we know horses can have fatal incidents in any race. Things look to me to be as safe and welfare driven as they can be.
Happy Easter everyone. Some cracking debate over new types of races which could be fun and may find their place in the calendar. If you are going to radically change the National wtf happens to cross country races? Dilton's note about breeding saddens me as lots of courses now have their brand of national and if you like this type of race as their popularity points to, then why not breed for them? I'm more in Dilton's camp as I don't think you f with a solid institution, there are improvements that have been made but as an owner or trainer, if you don't like the risks, don't enter.
As for Cheltenham I don't like the dilution that is there now. The festival would be down and out but for the Irish support. I don't think its expansion is attracting more British horses but less! Compare with Aintree that seems to be on the up and blossoming.
Its like the first sight of spring, Dakota Gold is back on a racecourse, whoopee! There are a lot of reasons why he can't possibly win. I just hope he's been galloping with Gale Force Maya!
Yesterday was Eric Morecambe day - I had all the right trainers but not necessarily in the right order!
Nap Hay 1409 Lime Drop
has had a fantastic season so it seems harsh to burden her with my selection, but she doesn't know that!
Tico Times EW Nap 16:04 Carl
Rogue Bear 3.35 Newbury is the nap.
Joe,I would be against this for a few reasons,some horses like to be prominent or lead,others need to be held up.This idea makes this impossible.If the keen horses were the lowest rated and in the front rank without cover the race could be lost at the start.Visually it would not be the same race.Maybe because of my age I am against most change but I do not like this at all.
Interesting thoughts, Joe. It has been in the back of my mind for a long time that adding (lead) weight to a horse is a crude method of handicapping and indeed has a significant effect on its physical performance (which is its raison d'etre). The method which you suggest would eliminate the potential stress of unnatural extra weights and the cavalry charge for position which is a major hazard. In addition there is the multiplicity of other advantages which you outline.
Interesting, too, to see the examples from Australia from amtrakker above. The athletic and yacht events are very different in essence but worth examining. Same thing happens in track cycling events. Being open minded about changes can lead to valuable increases in knowledge by trying them out.
There are, rightly, plenty of well informed comments around about the demise of horse racing and yesterday I see the Guardian covered Cheltenham's plans for an extra day to its festival, which most see as a terminal dilution and a big error. Many think the slide of horseracing into the hands of the bookies and finance driven racecourses and media megabucks is irreversible and inevitable.
Arguably, the refusal to entertain changes is part of the demise. Horse racing is a sport and a form of entertainment. It has to adapt. In order to do so it has be capable of trying out innovations. Many here will know of my view about the use of the whip, whose days I believe, are numbered. Much bettter that those involved and with clout recognise the climate, read the runes and adapt. Otherwise, things will happen that are driven purely by profit.
I would find it fascinating to see an event of the kind that Joe outlines and I believe that a great many of the general public would, too. Surely the answer to those outside the sport who do not care what happens to it is to show that it is innovatory and developmental and responsive to concerns from a vast future potential audience.
Starting stalls,staggered starts ,I've heard it all now ! Have I lost 16 days and its April 1st .For gods sake Joe come on,get real ,you will have horses running in lanes next wrapped up in cotton wool. All this because 2 horses get killed doing what they are bred to do ,come on. Toughen up.
If it had been two humans then I could understand all the hand wringing and fuss. Its sport ,accidents happen. The race has been made as safe as possible ,diluted i think more than enough. The same risk scenario is enacted every NH meeting whether theres 3 runners or 30 . Just because it's a headline event does not change the % risk. Every time a horse climbs into the horsebox to go to the sports theres a risk that it will not be coming back home ,flat or NH . That's the nature of the game. I hate it when it happens but it does ,always has ,always will. Generally it always happens to the good ones as well. But as hard and cold as this will seem, theres always another horse. That's the way we deal with it and we in the game are the ones most affected by the loss,owners as well.
Cook has taken leave of his senses. When I read that article I said to the Mrs have a butchers at this bollocks and tell me what you think, complete tripe was her answer along with a few expletives.
The ground in Febuary is often heavy. Cook has said horses recover from fatigue quickly. That's total bollocks . Hard races over marathon trips, contested by a fair few horses not bred to get those extreme trips bottoms them ,often for good. How many horses these days are bred to jump fences over 4 miles plus, not many . Bad ground exhausts and that's when mistakes are made and enhances the risks to both equine and humans. The idea of moving the race to February is just bonkers . They would be strung out like a washing line with just a handful of exhausted finishers with utter carnage behind. Aintree when its heavy leaves its mark as much as Haydock or Sandown does in that month.
I get more baffled each week reading the journalistic output in the RP and elsewhere ,the complete lack of knowledge about the mechanics of training a horse or looking after one is staggering ,yet the outpouring of socially driven drivel flourishes as if they are on a mission. How the hell do they get the job in the first place beats me. A degree in journalism from some outpost Uni would be better supplanted by working in a yard or riding as an Amateur so that you knew your subject. Marcus Armitage and co must be in fits reading the crap nowadays.
Before anyone jumps on the public perception theme ,please dont. I'm sick of hearing about it,spawned by people who watch racing once a year then go into warp factor on social media. What's worse is people with no knowledge of the equine then jump on the bandwagon.
NH racing is exactly what it says on the tin,its a tough game and everybody involved knows the risks involved in horses jumping fences at speed,if it upsets the answer is very simple . Dont bloody watch it.
Hi Joe, quite a timely suggestion. It's what they do with Australia's richest athletic race - the Stawell Gift run over the Easter weekend.
Draws 2022 - Powercor Stawell Gift
Another alternative, like with the Sydney to Hobart yacht race, is a performance based handicap. Send off four groups of ten, a minute apart, all on same weight, with each horse having an expected finish time based on ratings. The winner / placings are based on who exceed their expected performance by the most time. Easy to put GPS trackers on each horse, so you could run sectional analysis to tell who's in the lead during the race (like with F1 qualifiers), and you won't know the winner until the last cohort have come home.
NAP - Hotter than Hell 2.09 Haydock
Wild beauty nap (14:25)
Please leave the race alone. They really shouldn’t dilute it any further !
Fairyhouse 4.50 tomorrow.
I think the handicapper has given Felix Dejssy a bit of a chance, so he’s the ew nap. 33/1 presently.
Toy. 13.40. Mallow. You can dress up Mallow but you can't take it out and call it Cork.
I can't see the idea of Tangovictorindia ever reaching committee stage.
The TV Technical Directors would go on strike not knowing which screen to focus upon. They might even miss the 3 most dramatic incidents in the Race up to the 3rd Fence.
It seems a lot of effort to teach NH Horses the use of Starting Stalls for what might only be the only time they will use them.
If it requires these interventions for only one NH Race that implies there is something inherently wrong with the entire concept and the Race should be banned.
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